The week of October 26 through November 1.
The bottom line
Bitcoin ended the week 2.88% lower, near $77,925, after thieves took a reported $6.3 billion from the Binance exchange. The price briefly dropped to $76,171, and investors pulled $643 million from US Bitcoin funds in one day. The attack hit a company, not the Bitcoin network, and mining power finished at its weekly high. Tuesday’s US midterm elections and Friday’s jobs report come next.
The headline
Binance’s $6.3 billion hack, the largest in crypto history, overtook a week that had been about the Federal Reserve. Bitcoin reached $81,805.09 on Thursday, then fell to $76,171.01 on Friday as liquidations topped $1.5 billion across more than 230,000 traders. As of Monday morning, Bitcoin traded around $77,900, down 0.4% since midnight UTC, while Binance customers pulled a net $3.64 billion after withdrawals reopened, according to CoinDesk. The Block reported that Friday’s spot ETF exit was the largest single-day outflow since June 25.
Price and macro backdrop
Bitcoin started the window at $80,236.20 on Monday, October 26 and stood at $77,924.79 on Monday, November 2, a decline of 2.88%. The move had three legs. A dip before the Fed decision produced about $404 million in long liquidations. A split-vote hold on Wednesday then lifted price to about $81,500, before weak Samsung and Alphabet earnings and a hawkish read of the decision pulled it back toward $80,000, with traders pricing a 78% chance of a December hike. Stronger GDP data carried Bitcoin to its weekly high on Thursday, and the first hack reports arrived that evening US time.
Friday’s low was not only a crypto event. The S&P 500 slipped 0.57% to 7,580.07 after touching 7,744.38 on Wednesday and 7,544.72 on Friday. The VIX peaked at 23.01 on Friday afternoon, near the hour of Bitcoin’s low, and has since eased to 18.99. Gold fell 2.99% to $3,913.90. Strategy (MSTR) fell 10.62% to $130.51, with its premium at -6.49%. The 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 stands at 0.63, a coupled reading, while the gold correlation of 0.40 is loose.
The macro tape was steadier than the headlines. The dollar index sits at 121.32 in a stable regime. Net liquidity fell $59.8 billion week over week to $5.74 trillion, a mild headwind. The 10-year real rate is 2.63%, the fed funds rate is 3.88%, and CPI runs at 3.72% year over year. Consumer sentiment remains weak at 48.1, while the NFCI at -0.487 still describes loose financial conditions. The Fear and Greed index fell from 51 on Wednesday to 30 on Friday and reads 37 today. The frame is psychologically bearish, structurally intact: sentiment took the damage, while Bitcoin holds above its 200-day average and financial conditions have not tightened.
Technical setup
On the daily chart, the last close of $77,773.29 is 5.08% below the 50-day average of $81,931.54 and 6.31% above the 200-day average of $73,159.94. Daily RSI is 38.12, weak but not oversold by the conventional 30 line. Bollinger %B is 0.13, which puts price back inside the bands after this past weekend’s break below the lower band, now at $76,795.33. The daily MACD histogram remains negative at -410.47, while the 6-hour histogram has turned positive at 115.39. Hourly RSI is 44.23, and price sits 1.78% below the hourly 200-period average of $79,159.38.
ETF flows
The four sessions in this window, October 27 to October 30, split into three days of inflows and one large reversal. IBIT took in $151.5 million, $136.0 million and $12.8 million on the first three days, then lost $233.7 million on Friday. FBTC lost $201.0 million on Friday and ARKB lost $129.5 million, its only nonzero session of the window. GBTC lost $53.3 million and BITB lost $25.7 million the same day. Friday’s combined exit was $643 million. Some weekend coverage described that figure as a weekly total, but it was a single session.
By issuer, the four sessions left IBIT up $66.6 million and MSBT up $4.2 million. FBTC finished down $166.0 million, ARKB down $129.5 million, GBTC down $53.3 million, BITB down $15.6 million, BTC down $15.3 million and BTCW down $3.8 million. Reports put IBIT’s full October net inflow at $932.1 million, so the largest fund still closed the month positive. Product supply kept growing regardless: Switzerland’s FINMA approved the country’s first domestic retail Bitcoin ETF, and Franklin Templeton launched two dividend-reinvestment Bitcoin funds.
On-chain and mempool
Hashrate read 1,127.92 EH/s at the end of the window, its weekly high, up 2.98% from the start and well above the 964.26 EH/s low recorded on Friday. Miners showed no visible response to the price drop in this data, although the mining business continues to move toward AI, with Luxor raising $16 million to expand into AI compute trading.
Blockspace stayed cheap through the panic. The median mempool fee rate held at 1 sat/vB across the week, and the 90th percentile never exceeded 2 sat/vB. Mempool size peaked at 30,005,707 vbytes on Friday, alongside a total fee peak of 22,975,667 sats, and then returned to 22,382,921 vbytes and 2,803,852 sats. Transaction count ranged from 34,575 to 68,485 and now stands at 46,643. Binance’s withdrawal wave has not produced a fee event.
Derivatives
Funding stayed positive with no flip this week, at 0.0055% currently against a 7-day average of 0.0058%, so leverage remains modestly long even after the flush. Aggregate open interest is $8.08 billion. The latest CFTC report, dated October 27, shows 20,791 contracts and 103,955 BTC of open interest worth $7.96 billion, which predates the hack, so the next report will be the first to capture positioning after it.
Order book regime
The Coinbase book leans to the bid side but is thin. The imbalance score is 0.142 against a 24-hour average of 0.015. Bid depth within 2% of mid is 7.15 BTC against an average of 8.05 BTC, and ask depth is 5.37 BTC against an average of 7.84 BTC, so both sides sit below baseline. The spread of 0.0013 bps is tighter than the 0.0162 bps average. The most prominent wall is on the bid side near the $77,874 mid, with a prominence of 11.73, but the wall has switched sides several times over the past two hours and has held on the bid only since 11:30 UTC.
News and policy threads
The Binance story moved from the theft to the recovery. The attacker moved 18,270 BTC, worth about $1.4 billion, into 19 wallets that cannot be frozen, a stack that now exceeds the holdings of both Coinbase’s treasury and Tesla. Investigators linked the breach to North Korea. Binance pledged to cover losses through its SAFU fund and reopened withdrawals in phases, bitcoin first, while CZ argued that the $6.3 billion figure overstates the damage. Second-order effects reached listed holders: Next Technology Holding authorized a possible $450 million sale of its 5,833 BTC, citing the hack and quantum computing risk.
Corporate treasuries diverged. Strive bought 6,182 BTC for $511 million, reached 43,000 BTC and lined up a $1 billion program. Strategy paused buying for a fifth week to fund $205 million in preferred share repurchases, then reported $19.5 billion in third-quarter net income and 848,517 BTC, with Michael Saylor citing $30 billion in credit capacity. Its bitcoin-per-share yield turned negative and its CFO abruptly resigned. Datavault AI shares fell nearly 50% after it said it could not access bitcoin tied to a $150 million deal, and Coinbase missed revenue estimates as Brian Armstrong moved to sell up to $2 billion in stock.
Security was the week’s quieter thread. Bitcoin Core patched three AI-discovered vulnerabilities, including a bug that could crash Windows and macOS nodes, and new research cut the hardware needed to break a Bitcoin key by 17 times. Trezor told Safe 5 buyers who purchased through CryptoBilis to move funds after a suspected hardware implant. BTCPay Server told operators on outdated versions to shut down after reports of hot wallet thefts. An October 21 preprint estimated that 71% of an exposed LND cohort remained on affected release lines.
The week ahead
Two scheduled events arrive first: the US midterm elections on Tuesday and the jobs report on Friday. CPI follows on November 12, 10 days out, and the next FOMC decision is December 15, 43 days out. Bitcoin’s halving cycle is 63.38% complete, 926 days past the last halving.
Three items outside the calendar deserve attention: Monday’s ETF print after Friday’s exit, whether Binance outflows slow as withdrawals normalize, and any movement from the attacker’s 19 wallets. Published forecasts remain split between a reclaim of $80,000 and a slide toward $70,000.
Bitcoin Sidekick reads the Fear and Greed index every few hours and overlays it on your price chart. Useful for spotting when sentiment is leading or lagging the price.
onlyhashes.com publishes a weekly Bitcoin review every Monday morning. The data behind this post is generated by Bitcoin Sidekick’s OreRelay infrastructure: Bitcoin-only, no third-party trackers, no altcoins. Disclosures: this is editorial commentary on publicly available market data; nothing in this post is investment advice.