The week of June 29 through July 5, 2026.

The bottom line

Bitcoin closed its worst month in four years and then steadied, rising about 3.2% on the week to around $61,800 after dipping under $58,000 and later nearing $64,000. A weak US jobs report was the turning point, easing worries about more Federal Reserve rate hikes and drawing money back toward riskier assets. Stocks and gold rose too, so this was a broad recovery in mood, not something specific to Bitcoin. Investors were still pulling money out of the largest Bitcoin ETF, though, which keeps the rebound tentative.

The headline

Bitcoin closed the worst month it has seen in four years and then found its footing, rising about 3.2% on the week to about $61,793 after a late run to $63,869. The turn came from the macro data: a weak US jobs report cooled expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening and put a bid back under risk assets. As of Monday morning Bitcoin had pushed into the high $63,000s over the weekend before easing back toward $62,000 as the new week opened, with a US crypto bill gaining fresh traction in Washington and prediction markets pricing high odds that the Fed holds rates steady at its next meeting.

Price and macro backdrop

Bitcoin opened the week near $59,871 and closed near $61,793, a 3.2% gain that ran from a low of $57,756 on July 1 to a high of $63,869 late on July 5, roughly a 10% peak-to-trough range around a $61,179 weekly average. The recovery was broad and risk-on. The S&P 500 rose about 1.8% to about 7,483, gold gained about 2.6% to about $4,165, and the VIX volatility index fell about 11% from 18.38 to 16.33. Strategy (MSTR), the listed Bitcoin treasury company formerly known as MicroStrategy, led the cohort with a 22.4% rebound from $82.31 to $100.77, though it still trades at roughly a 28% discount to the value of its Bitcoin holdings after last month’s slide.

Bitcoin’s ties to the rest of the macro tape loosened. Its 30-day correlation to the S&P 500 eased to 0.43, a loose reading, down from the coupled levels above 0.50 that marked most of June, and its correlation to gold was similar at 0.44, also loose. Put another way, this week’s rebound owed more to Bitcoin’s own flow and sentiment repair than to a lockstep move with equities, even as stocks and gold both climbed.

The macro plumbing stayed accommodative. The dollar index firmed about 0.9% to 120.89, a strengthening read and a mild headwind, while net liquidity across the financial system rose about $29 billion week over week to roughly $5.84 trillion. Real yields stayed positive, the 10-year real rate at 2.25% and the 5-year at 1.98%, with the federal funds rate at 3.63% and headline inflation running about 4.2% year over year. None of the credit gauges flashed: the Chicago Fed’s financial conditions index sat at -0.50, looser than average; the St. Louis stress index was well below zero at -0.85; and high-yield spreads held tight at 2.75%. The one soft spot was the consumer, with sentiment depressed at 44.8. As in recent weeks, June’s decline read as a flow-driven and psychological reset rather than a break in the system, and this week both the flows and the psychology began to mend.

Technical setup

On the daily chart the deep-oversold condition of late June eased. The 14-day relative strength reading recovered to about 48 from the low 30s a week earlier, momentum improved with the daily MACD histogram positive, and price pushed into the upper half of its volatility band. Even so, Bitcoin sat around $62,687 on the daily frame, still about 5.7% below its 50-day average and 16% below its 200-day, so the recovery remains a counter-trend bounce inside a broader downtrend rather than a confirmed reversal. The intraday picture cooled by Monday morning: the hourly relative strength reading slipped to about 38 and price pressed toward the lower edge of its short-term band, the pullback that showed up as the weekend high faded.

ETF flows

The spot ETF complex stayed in net redemption across the three reporting days captured in the window, shedding about $295 million on net. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for all of the damage and then some, bleeding about $472 million, including a single-day redemption near $219 million on July 1. Strip out IBIT and the rest of the cohort was net positive by about $177 million. The offsets were real: Fidelity’s FBTC took in about $105 million and ARKB about $52 million, with roughly $36 million into Grayscale’s mini Bitcoin fund and about $30 million into MSBT, while Grayscale’s GBTC shed about $63 million.

Those numbers sit inside a larger story that ran through the news all week. June closed as what several outlets called the worst month on record for the category, an eighth straight week of outflows, and the editorial thread swung back and forth between an eighth-week outflow streak and inflows returning as the days passed. The captured flow window shows why the signal was mixed: the largest fund kept bleeding even as Fidelity and ARK drew fresh money mid-week, with FBTC’s best day near $166 million on July 2. That is a fragile stabilization, not a clean turn, and the flow picture remains the market’s main tell.

On-chain and mempool

The network stayed steady. Hashrate held near 853 exahashes per second, down about 0.5% on the week, after averaging closer to 933 and spiking above 1,026 midweek, a reminder that miner commitment has not followed price lower. Blockspace demand firmed modestly: the mempool’s virtual size grew about 12.9% and total fees paid across pending transactions rose about 25.2%, even as the count of pending transactions held essentially flat near 97,500. It was a busier week on-chain than the empty-blockspace lull of late June, but nowhere near a congestion event.

Derivatives

Leverage leaned mildly long without stretching. Perpetual funding was positive at about +0.0097% per interval, above its seven-day average near +0.0013%, meaning longs were paying shorts, a mild positive tilt rather than the negative, short-heavy positioning of the prior two weeks; the sign did not flip. Open interest across venues stood near $6.51 billion. CFTC commitments data was not in this week’s digest, so the regulated futures picture is incomplete.

Order book regime

Microstructure leaned to the bid into Monday morning. The Coinbase book carried an imbalance near +0.24 against a roughly neutral 24-hour average close to +0.03, with bid-side depth within 2% of mid above its 24-hour norm while ask-side depth sat below it, resting buyers the more assertive side even as price slipped. The spread held a small fraction of a basis point throughout, well inside its 24-hour average, and the dominant wall sat on the bid side close to the mid-price. On its own that is no directional signal, but it shows support firming beneath a market that had spent the weekend testing higher.

News and policy threads

The hinge of the week was the US labor data. A weak jobs report cooled expectations for further Fed tightening, and Bitcoin climbed back above $62,000 as prediction markets moved toward pricing a Fed hold. That macro catalyst, more than any Bitcoin-specific development, drove the mid-week recovery, and it fits the loosening correlation picture: a dovish repricing of rates lifted risk assets broadly while Bitcoin traded on its own flow story underneath.

The second recurring thread was corporate treasuries. Strategy, still the largest public corporate Bitcoin holder, spent the week under a brighter tape as its shares rebounded 22.4%, but the market kept a closer eye on its discount to net asset value and on funding conditions, and at least one smaller corporate holder exited its Bitcoin position entirely, a reminder that the treasury trade is no longer the one-way bet it looked like a year ago.

Underneath the price, analysts stayed split. Citi trimmed its 12-month Bitcoin target to $82,000 on weaker ETF-demand assumptions, on-chain desks pointed to patient buyers quietly accumulating beneath a softer tape, and veteran trader Peter Brandt floated rotating some Bitcoin into gold as the gold-to-Bitcoin ratio drew attention, an echo of gold’s 2.6% weekly gain outrunning Bitcoin’s.

The week ahead

The calendar moves back to center. The next consumer price report lands on July 15, nine days out, and given that shifting rate expectations drove this week’s recovery, that print is the most important near-term catalyst, especially with headline inflation still running above 4% year over year. The Federal Reserve’s next decision follows on July 28, 22 days away. With the market now leaning toward a Fed hold and the macro plumbing calm, the near-term question is whether the fragile stabilization in ETF flows can firm into real demand, or whether the largest fund’s selling keeps capping the recovery near $63,000. The structure underneath held through the worst month in four years; whether sentiment follows depends, again, on what the data says next.

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onlyhashes.com publishes a weekly Bitcoin review every Monday morning. The data behind this post is generated by Bitcoin Sidekick’s OreRelay infrastructure: Bitcoin-only, no third-party trackers, no altcoins. Disclosures: this is editorial commentary on publicly available market data; nothing in this post is investment advice.