The week of July 27 through August 2, 2026.

The bottom line

Bitcoin fell about 4% this week to around $62,600, closing at the bottom of its weekly range. A split decision at the Federal Reserve to leave rates unchanged and a security flaw in a widely used Bitcoin storage device, which cost holders roughly $90 million, kept buyers cautious. Investors pulled a modest amount of money out of Bitcoin ETFs. Stocks rose and market nerves eased elsewhere, so the weakness was Bitcoin’s own rather than part of a broader selloff.

The headline

Bitcoin fell 3.99% for the week, closing the seven-day window at $62,613.85 against an open of $65,214.58, and the price never found a foothold. The weekly high of $65,615.39 printed Monday afternoon, hours into the window; the low of $62,212.35 printed this Monday morning, barely two hours before it closed. In between sat the Federal Reserve’s most divided vote in years and a hardware wallet exploit whose toll grew from $38 million toward $90 million. As of Monday morning the tape is heavy but orderly: fresh coverage has Bitcoin range-bound near $62,000 with the Coinbase premium negative for a 77th straight day, while Strategy is tracking Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average and Michael Saylor is signaling that the firm’s five-week buying pause may be ending.

Price and macro backdrop

The shape of the week was a stairstep lower. From Monday’s $65,615.39 high the tape slid as an Asian equity selloff spread, pierced $63,000, then rebounded toward $64,000 into Wednesday’s Fed decision. The hold whipsawed price through roughly $280 million in liquidations without breaking it; the Coldcard exploit then took over the news flow, and the market spent Thursday and Friday testing $62,000 support before consolidating there through the weekend. The close at $62,613.85, down 3.99% around a $63,647.32 weekly average, sits just above the low set this morning. Sentiment never left fear: the Fear and Greed index opened its daily prints at 29, bottomed at 25 Friday, and finished at 28, averaging 27.57 across seven readings.

The drop ran against a firming equity tape, which is what makes it stand out. The S&P 500 rose 1.05% to 7,489.72, setting its weekly low on Fed day and its high on Friday; the VIX fell 10.05% to 15.94, its low of the week, after a Fed-day spike to 20.66; gold added 0.13% to $4,104 with a Thursday peak of $4,171. Strategy (MSTR) rose 1.76% to $93.28 and finished at a 0.56% premium to the value of its Bitcoin holdings, a notable repricing for a stock that spent recent weeks at a double-digit discount. The 30-day correlation to the S&P 500 read 0.24, tagged loose, down from coupled readings in recent weeks, while the gold correlation held coupled at 0.60. This week fit neither tag: Bitcoin fell while both counterparts rose.

The macro plumbing stayed intact underneath. The dollar index held stable at 120.71. Net liquidity fell about $92.1 billion week over week to roughly $5.83 trillion, extending the prior week’s drain and standing again as the quiet headwind. Real yields stayed positive, 2.41% on the 10-year and 2.14% on the 5-year, against a 3.63% federal funds rate, with the 10-year breakeven at 2.28%. Credit did not move: the Chicago Fed’s financial conditions index sat loose at -0.554, the St. Louis stress index at -0.8263, and high-yield spreads at 2.84%. Headline inflation runs 3.46% year over year, M2 grows at 5.53%, and consumer sentiment printed 49.5, firmer than the depressed readings of recent weeks. The standing frame holds: this week’s damage was psychological and flow-driven, priced in Bitcoin alone, not a credit event.

Technical setup

The daily chart rolled over. The 14-day relative strength index closed at 43.97, the daily MACD histogram was negative at -246.85, and price sat near the floor of its volatility band with a %B of 0.09. At a last daily close of $62,640.02, price stood 1.02% below its 50-day average and 11.73% below its 200-day, the long trendline still overhead near $70,961. Monday’s intraday tape matched the daily read, with the hourly RSI at 40.47.

ETF flows

The captured flow window, four reporting days from July 28 through July 31, finished net negative by about $49.9 million, and the reversal inside it matters more than the total. BlackRock’s IBIT logged the window’s largest single-day inflow, $183.4 million on Thursday, July 30, then its largest outflow, $122.7 million on Friday, and still finished net positive at $95.7 million. The selling concentrated elsewhere: Fidelity’s FBTC shed $82.4 million with its worst day Friday, Grayscale’s GBTC lost $52.6 million in a single Friday outflow, and ARKB gave back $30.6 million. The small funds leaned the other way, with $7.4 million each into Grayscale’s mini Bitcoin fund and MSBT, $2.9 million into BITB, and $2.3 million into HODL.

The editorial log gives the rows their timing: its Fed-day entry recorded flows turning positive after four straight outflow sessions, the rows show Thursday’s surge, and Friday’s reversal landed as the Coldcard losses crested. Last week’s open question, whether the July 24 outflow was a flinch or a turn, got a split answer: four funds took money in, three saw it leave, and the window netted out slightly negative.

On-chain and mempool

The hashrate estimate, noisy by construction, drifted lower: from 919.60 exahashes per second at the open to 905.49 at the close, down 1.53% around a 921.20 average, with a Sunday peak of 1,028.94 and a Wednesday trough of 784.30. Blockspace stayed quiet. Pending transactions were essentially flat, up 0.21% to 87,599 after a Tuesday-evening peak of 110,915; the backlog by virtual size rose 2.47% to about 43.6 million vbytes; total fees waiting in the mempool rose 17.13% to about 9.29 million satoshis, with the week’s spike to 30.94 million printing Wednesday evening, the same session as the Fed decision. Nothing approached congestion.

Derivatives

Leverage stayed defensively priced, but the lean eased. Perpetual funding read -0.0049% per interval at the latest sample against a -0.0112% seven-day average; the digest tags the funding regime negative, with no flip flagged. That reading sits in tension with weekend coverage describing crowded long futures positioning and squeeze risk toward $60,000: funding says shorts still pay at the margin, and the two views are worth holding side by side rather than resolving. Open interest across venues stood near $6.35 billion, and CFTC commitments showed open interest of 100,095 Bitcoin as of the July 28 report, about $6.3 billion notional.

Order book regime

Into Monday morning the book leans hard to the ask. The imbalance read -0.63 against a 24-hour average of -0.05, matching the most ask-tilted reading of its own 24-hour range. Ask-side depth within 2% of mid sat at 14.99 Bitcoin against a 7.13 baseline while bid-side depth at 3.35 sat below its 6.29 norm, and the spread held near 0.0016 basis points, the tight end of its 24-hour range. The dominant resting wall sat on the ask side essentially at the mid-price, where it has been in 9 of the last 13 samples. Resting supply is pressing on an otherwise orderly book, with price sitting just above its weekly low.

News and policy threads

The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50 to 3.75 percent on Wednesday in its most divided vote in years, and Bitcoin whipsawed through the decision, wiping out roughly $280 million in leveraged positions before settling near $64,000. The log paired the hold with a GDP miss in the same session, and the Bank of Japan held steady in the same stretch; neither gave the tape direction, and by Thursday the macro story had handed off to the exploit.

The week’s Bitcoin-native story was Coldcard. A flaw in the hardware wallet line let attackers regenerate private keys from vulnerable seeds, draining 594 BTC, about $38 million, from roughly 500 addresses in 25 minutes; Coinkite urged owners of Mk3 through Mk5 devices to move funds behind a new passphrase. By the weekend a third wave of sweeps had pushed losses toward $89 million across 4,500 addresses, with the latest entries rounding the toll to $90 million, and one weekend digest described fear sentiment at a record high. The Fear and Greed index tells a milder story, holding between 25 and 29 all week; the gap between a record fear print in the coverage and a merely fearful index is worth naming, not resolving.

The corporate treasury thread turned on Sunday. Mid-week, Strategy’s CEO drew analyst criticism after signaling the firm may prioritize goals beyond Bitcoin accumulation, with coverage putting a potential sale of up to $5 billion in BTC on the table; by Sunday, Saylor was signaling a return to buying after five idle weeks, and Monday’s coverage has the firm watching the 200-week moving average. Trump Media kept trimming, disputing that a $165 million transfer to Crypto.com was a sale even as its tracked wallets fell toward loan-collateral levels. In Washington, the Clarity Act remained stalled just days before a Senate vote.

The week ahead

The calendar turns to inflation. The next consumer price report lands August 12, nine days out, the first major print since the Fed’s divided hold; the next FOMC decision is September 15, 43 days away, so the data arrives with no meeting close behind it. Inside Bitcoin, the Clarity Act’s Senate window comes due within days, Coldcard migration counts will show whether the third wave of sweeps was the last, and the flow question is concrete: whether Friday’s $122.7 million IBIT outflow extends into a streak or gets absorbed the way Thursday’s $183.4 million inflow was. On the treasury side the tell is simple: after five idle weeks, either Strategy’s next disclosure shows a purchase or it does not.

Fear and Greed is one signal among many. Bitcoin Sidekick layers it alongside price action, ETF flows, and on-chain activity so you can see the full sentiment picture, not a single number out of context.

onlyhashes.com publishes a weekly Bitcoin review every Monday morning. The data behind this post is generated by Bitcoin Sidekick’s OreRelay infrastructure: Bitcoin-only, no third-party trackers, no altcoins. Disclosures: this is editorial commentary on publicly available market data; nothing in this post is investment advice.