The week of August 10 through August 16, 2026.
The bottom line
Bitcoin barely moved this week, ending down 0.58% at $63,971.97 after spending seven days between $62,511 and $64,410.03. Investors pulled money out of nine of the twelve US spot Bitcoin funds, with Fidelity’s fund losing the most at $112.8 million. Computing power on the network jumped 14.30%, a sign miners kept expanding while the price sat still. The next US inflation report and Federal Reserve meeting are both more than three weeks away.
The headline
Bitcoin fell 0.58% for the week, closing the seven-day window at $63,971.97 against an open of $64,344.09, and the range around that close was narrow throughout. The high of $64,410.03 printed Tuesday, barely above the open; the low of $62,511 arrived Friday afternoon; the weekly average came in at $63,375.41. As of Monday morning the tape is steady and the news is not. Fresh coverage has Strategy raising $333.7 million through common stock sales without buying or selling a single bitcoin, lifting its dollar reserve to $4.8 billion, while a separate thread traces $100 million in Coldcard losses to a code bug that went unnoticed for years, and one outlet flags a weekly candle close below Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average.
Price and macro backdrop
The shape of the week was a slow drift and a bounce. Price opened at $64,344.09, set the weekly high of $64,410.03 midday Tuesday, then leaked lower through the middle of the week as the editorial log filled with entries recording a CPI print that matched forecasts, bottoming at $62,511 Friday afternoon. From there it repaired into the weekend. The full window moved 0.58% lower around a $63,375.41 average. Sentiment stayed in fear without deteriorating: the Fear and Greed index opened its daily prints at 29 Tuesday, bottomed at 27 Wednesday, peaked at 34 Saturday, and read 31 Monday, averaging 30.43 across seven readings.
The flat week came against a mildly positive tape elsewhere, which is what gives it its character. The S&P 500 rose 0.09% to 7,773.44, with a Friday peak of 7,805.22 and a Tuesday low of 7,722.48; gold added 1.45% to $4,476.10 after touching $4,490 Thursday; the VIX eased 1.51% to 14.97, its 14.25 low printing Friday. Strategy (MSTR) fell 0.49% to $97.45, its $92.05 low arriving Friday alongside Bitcoin’s, and finished at a 4.29% premium to the value of its Bitcoin holdings. The 30-day correlation to gold read 0.61 and is tagged coupled; the correlation to the S&P 500 read 0.41 and is tagged loose. Bitcoin fell while both counterparts rose, so neither tag described this week.
The macro plumbing tightened at the margin. The dollar index sat at 119.0649, tagged weakening, down 1.07% over 30 days. Net liquidity fell about $43.8 billion week over week to roughly $5.80 trillion, resuming the drain. Real yields held positive at 2.39% on the 10-year and 2.11% on the 5-year against a 3.63% federal funds rate, with the 10-year breakeven at 2.27% and the 10-year to 2-year spread at 0.48. Credit stayed loose: the Chicago Fed’s financial conditions index read -0.549, the St. Louis stress index -0.7709, and high-yield spreads 2.67%. Headline inflation runs 3.30% year over year, M2 grows at 5.53%, and consumer sentiment held at 49.5. The standing frame carries another week: fearful psychology on an intact structure, with liquidity the one line that turned unhelpful.
Technical setup
The daily chart reads neutral. The 14-day relative strength index closed at 49.58, the daily MACD histogram was negative at -104.35, and price sat almost exactly mid-band with a %B of 0.49 between a lower band of $62,357.96 and an upper band of $65,202.99. At a last daily close of $63,754.23, price stood just above its 50-day average of $63,651.01 and well below its 200-day average of $69,136.60, the long trendline still overhead. Monday’s intraday tape is firmer than the daily read, with the hourly relative strength index at 66.53, the hourly MACD histogram positive at 35.34, and an hourly %B of 0.89.
ETF flows
The captured flow window runs four reporting days, August 11 through August 14, and nine of the twelve tracked issuers finished it in redemption. Fidelity’s FBTC led the outflows at $112.8 million on net, its worst single day $55.1 million on August 13. ARKB gave back $70.3 million with a $58.8 million August 13 session of its own, and Grayscale’s GBTC lost $36.3 million in one August 13 print. BlackRock’s IBIT netted $25.3 million out despite posting the window’s largest single inflow, $50.2 million on August 11, undone by a $55.5 million outflow on August 14. Franklin’s EZBC shed $16.5 million, VanEck’s HODL $10.3 million, Invesco’s BTCO $7.9 million, WisdomTree’s BTCW $4.0 million, and Bitwise’s BITB $3.2 million on net. Only two funds took money in: Grayscale’s mini Bitcoin fund at $38.9 million and MSBT at $7.1 million. BRRR sat flat at zero.
August 13 did most of the damage, with six of the nine redeeming funds setting their worst day of the window in that single session, the day after the inflation print. The editorial log and the rows only partly agree. The log’s weekend entries described institutions expanding ETF stakes, and by this morning it had turned to flows turning positive, a shift the four captured rows predate. Fresh coverage puts the completed week at a $390 million outflow while separately reporting that US spot funds took in more than 14,000 bitcoin over five days, the same tension in different units. Last week’s open question, whether the strongest inflow week since mid-April would survive an inflation print, is answered in the rows: it did not.
On-chain and mempool
The network’s week belonged to the miners. The hashrate estimate, noisy by construction, rose 14.30% from 897.05 exahashes per second at the open to 1,025.30 at the close, which was also the week’s high, printed early Monday; the trough of 822.83 came Wednesday, against a 908.18 weekly average. The news flow gives the number context without confirming it: the log tracked miners deepening an AI pivot all week, and Monday coverage has HIVE signing a five-year, $350 million GPU cloud contract, its second large cluster deal in two months.
Blockspace stayed quiet. Pending transactions fell 10.04% to 75,733 from a 98,953 peak Wednesday, with the 68,695 trough printing early Monday. The backlog by virtual size rose 2.67% to about 42.4 million vbytes, peaking near 46.3 million Saturday evening. Total fees waiting in the mempool fell 33.63% to about 8.81 million satoshis from 13.27 million at the open, after a Wednesday spike to 188.87 million that stands far above every other reading in the window. The median fee rate sat at 1 satoshi per vbyte across all 1,008 samples. Nothing approached congestion.
Derivatives
Leverage leaned mildly long and got longer. Perpetual funding read +0.0099% per interval at the latest sample against a +0.0038% seven-day average; the digest tags the funding regime positive, with no flip flagged. Open interest across venues stood near $6.66 billion, and CFTC commitments showed open interest of 105,925 bitcoin as of the August 11 report. The log spent the back half of the week on leverage risk, and Monday coverage sharpens it into a specific worry: futures open interest outpacing trading volume by a wide margin, a liquidity mismatch that makes an orderly exit harder than an orderly entry.
Order book regime
Into Monday morning the book leans to the bid. The imbalance read +0.20 against a 24-hour average of +0.03 in a range that ran from -0.98 to +0.87. Bid-side depth within 2% of mid sat at 9.54 bitcoin against an 8.87 baseline, while ask-side depth at 6.39 sat well under its 8.60 norm, so the tilt comes from thin offers as much as thick bids. The spread held at 0.0016 basis points, exactly the 24-hour minimum, against a 0.0068 average. The dominant resting wall sat on the bid side essentially at the mid-price, with a prominence of 10.59.
News and policy threads
The corporate treasury thread ran all week and ended in a pause. Strategy bookended it: the log’s opening entries recorded another 1,690 bitcoin sold for $653 million to build a cash buffer, and by Monday the disclosure is the absence of a trade. Fresh coverage has the firm raising $333.7 million through common stock sales, adding $149.1 million to a dollar reserve that now stands at $4.8 billion, and repurchasing more STRC, while neither buying nor selling bitcoin. Mid-week the log carried an MSCI exclusion risk that pressured the stock into its Friday low, and Metaplanet publicly denied a sale. Around them the strain was plainer. Monday coverage describes a Nasdaq healthcare company that sold every coin it held to stay afloat against a $3.41 million working capital deficit, a former solar firm holding $4.1 million of bitcoin against $166,000 in cash, and a treasury company that sold 600 BTC to cut debt and still faces $60 million due in December.
The custody thread refused to end. The log recorded Trezor disclosing a data breach mid-week, and the weekend digest widened it to 54,000 wallet users across Trezor and SafePal at elevated phishing risk. Monday’s coverage returns to Coldcard with a post mortem: a bug in the wallet’s code went unnoticed for years and ultimately led to $100 million in hacked funds, with one commentary arguing the episode proves reputation is not a security model. For a market that spent the week flat, the security ledger moved more than the price did.
The institutional thread pulled the other way. The log tracked Goldman expanding its Bitcoin ETF positions, banks embracing crypto, and Wall Street adding to ETF stakes through the weekend, which sits awkwardly beside four consecutive redemption days in the rows. Miners kept converting hashrate into compute revenue, with Riot surging early in the week on an Anthropic deal. In Washington, the weekend digest put CLARITY passage odds at 10% despite a White House meeting.
The week ahead
The calendar is empty, and that is the point. The next consumer price report lands September 10, 24 days out, and the next FOMC decision September 15, 29 days away, so this week carries no scheduled macro catalyst. Coverage frames it the same way, with the release of minutes from the July 28 to 29 FOMC meeting the most notable item on the docket. Inside Bitcoin, the halving cycle sits 58.11% complete at 849 days since the last one, still short of the three-quarter mark that would make it a milestone.
The open questions are concrete. Whether four straight redemption days extend into a streak or get absorbed the way the log’s Monday entries suggest is the flow question. Whether Strategy raising $333.7 million and buying nothing reads as discipline or as the end of accumulation is the treasury question. And whether a hashrate that rose 14.30% into a flat tape reflects confidence in Bitcoin or in the AI contracts now funding the miners is the one the next round of disclosures will answer.
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onlyhashes.com publishes a weekly Bitcoin review every Monday morning. The data behind this post is generated by Bitcoin Sidekick’s OreRelay infrastructure: Bitcoin-only, no third-party trackers, no altcoins. Disclosures: this is editorial commentary on publicly available market data; nothing in this post is investment advice.