The week of September 7 through September 13, 2026.

The bottom line

Bitcoin fell 1.86% this week to $77,835.36, dropping as low as $76,281.48 on Friday after a hot US inflation report pushed 30-year government bond yields to their highest level in 19 years. The mood cooled but stayed positive, with the Fear and Greed index falling from 69 to 57. US spot Bitcoin funds lost $462.7 million over four reporting days, their first losing week since mid-August. The Federal Reserve’s next meeting begins tomorrow.

The headline

Bitcoin fell 1.86% across the seven-day window, closing at $77,835.36 against an open of $79,310.90. The high of $79,738.64 printed Wednesday morning and the low of $76,281.48 arrived Friday midday, so the week reads as a fade rather than a break. The weekly average of $77,874.54 sits fractionally above the close. As of Monday morning the tape has firmed while equities have not: fresh coverage has Bitcoin climbing to $78,000 as crypto sits out an AI-driven selloff, up 1.9% since midnight UTC while Nasdaq 100 index futures fell 1.65% and crude gained almost 4% on a Saudi pipeline closure. Another outlet calls the days ahead Bitcoin’s biggest week of 2026, with the Fed and a Senate CLARITY Act vote taking center stage.

Price and macro backdrop

The shape of the week was a stall, a break, and a partial repair. The editorial log opened with Bitcoin steady near $80,000 as whale wallets flipped to net selling ahead of Fed decision week. Midweek brought an oil spike, renewed US-Iran tensions, and a Treasury bond buyback tripled to $6 billion that the log records as failing to reignite the rally that once carried Bitcoin from $65,000 to $80,000. Friday delivered the break, with a hot US producer price print and 30-year Treasury yields at a 19-year high. Sentiment tracked it. The Fear and Greed index opened its daily prints at 69, bottomed at 56 on Friday, and read 57 on Monday, averaging 63 across seven readings.

The move was shared, which is not the usual pattern. The S&P 500 fell 0.80% to 7,656.98, its low of 7,582.96 printing Thursday. Gold fell 3.22% to $4,332.40 after peaking at $4,485.20 on Tuesday. The VIX rose 16.22% to 17.70, its 18.13 peak arriving Monday morning, so equity volatility firmed as Bitcoin faded. Strategy (MSTR) fell 8.28% to $130.97 and finished at a 14.60% premium to the value of its Bitcoin holdings. The 30-day correlation to gold read 0.6742 and is tagged coupled; the correlation to the S&P 500 read 0.1997 and is tagged decoupled. The gold tag fit the week and the equity tag did not, because both fell together.

The plumbing loosened while the bond market did the opposite. Net liquidity sat near $5.85 trillion, up about $83.29 billion week over week, reversing the drains recorded in each of the prior two weeks, and the federal funds rate held at 3.63%. Real yields stayed firmly positive at 2.55% on the 10-year and 2.29% on the 5-year, with the 10-year breakeven at 2.36% and the 10-year to 2-year spread at 0.39. M2 grows at 5.41% year over year. The frame these pages have carried for months, fearful psychology on an intact structure, only half fits. Sentiment never left greed. What moved price was the long end of the curve.

Technical setup

The daily chart cooled into the middle of its range while the hourly chart firmed. The 14-day relative strength index closed at 56.90, with %B at 0.3901 in the lower half of a band running from $75,912.87 to $80,981.06. The daily MACD line at 1,482.79 has fallen below its signal at 2,196.05 for a negative histogram of -713.26, so daily momentum has turned down inside a longer uptrend, and the 14-day average true range stands at 2,118.48. Price sits 10.97% above the daily 200-period average of $70,188.98 and 9.08% above the 50-period average of $71,408.62. Monday’s intraday tape reads the other way: the hourly relative strength index is 60.92, hourly %B is 0.8325 near the upper band, and the hourly close sits 0.82% above the hourly 50-period average of $77,241.50.

ETF flows

The captured flow window runs four reporting days, September 8 through September 11, and every dollar of consequence went out. ARKB shed $234.2 million on net, its worst session a $164.3 million redemption on September 10 against a single $8.1 million inflow on September 8. Grayscale’s GBTC gave back $129.1 million, with a $65.5 million redemption on September 8. BlackRock’s IBIT lost $52.5 million, its $10.7 million inflow overwhelmed by a $24.5 million September 10 outflow. Fidelity’s FBTC shed $50.7 million, VanEck’s HODL $13.1 million, and Invesco’s BTCO $4.7 million. Only MSBT at $19.7 million and Bitwise’s BITB at $1.9 million finished positive. BRRR, EZBC, BTCW, and BTC sat flat at zero.

The rows and the log agree. The log’s Monday entry states it plainly: US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $462.7 million in weekly outflows, their first loss since mid-August, while Ether ETFs gained. Fresh coverage adds that withdrawals landed across all four sessions of a holiday-shortened week, with $46.7 million out on Tuesday, the first trading day after the holiday. September 10 carried the week, and ARKB carried September 10.

On-chain and mempool

The network got quieter and cheaper. The hashrate estimate, noisy by construction, fell 7.17% from 1,040.10 exahashes per second at the open to 965.57 at the close, with a Friday trough of 835.94 against a 945.39 weekly average. Pending transactions fell 11.11% to 79,821 after a Tuesday-evening peak of 95,122 and a Saturday-morning trough of 64,686. The backlog by virtual size eased 2.14% to about 41.7 million vbytes. Total fees waiting in the mempool fell 10.08% to about 8.36 million satoshis from 9.30 million at the open, after a Wednesday spike to 39.57 million. Nothing approached congestion, and the next-block fee series is absent from this week’s digest.

Derivatives

Leverage is absent rather than crowded, and the venue matters. Perpetual funding read 0.0004% per interval at the latest sample against a 0.0017% seven-day average, both far below the 0.0100% an eight-hour perpetual pays at its neutral default, so funding is calm in absolute terms and not merely relative to its own week. The digest tags the funding regime neutral, with no flip flagged. On regulated US futures, CFTC commitments showed open interest of 105,415 Bitcoin across 21,083 contracts as of the September 8 report, worth about $8.13 billion at the latest mark. That is the CME-cleared book alone and says nothing about offshore positioning. Funding this quiet through a 1.86% decline points at spot selling rather than a leveraged flush.

Order book regime

Into Monday morning the book is balanced, thinner than its own day, and very tight. The imbalance read -0.0030 against a 24-hour average of -0.0161, in a range that ran from -0.5851 to +0.2862 across 144 samples, so the current tilt is negligible against a day that leaned to the offer. Bid-side depth within 2% of mid sat at 5.09 Bitcoin against a 6.03 baseline, ask-side depth at 5.12 against a 6.31 norm, so both shelves are thinner than average. The spread held at 0.0013 basis points. The dominant resting wall sat on the ask side, 0.0001% from a mid-price of $77,872.48, with a prominence of 9.89.

News and policy threads

The rate thread ran the week and owns the next one. Friday’s session is the one to keep: the log recorded a hot producer price print, a 19-year high in 30-year Treasury yields, oil above $100, and renewed US-Iran tensions hitting risk assets, with Bitcoin ETFs logging a second straight outflow near $167 million, though sell-side risk stayed at rare lows and traders showed little panic. Fresh Monday coverage carries the thread into the decision, with analysts naming a stronger yen and US yields as the biggest near-term risks, because a firmer yen accelerates the unwinding of carry trades.

The security thread was the countercurrent, and it broadened from one incident into a cluster. Blockstream refused a $50 million ransom for the 598 BTC still held from its Liquid sidechain breach, betting on deterrence as L-BTC resumed. Revolut disclosed that hackers exposed customers’ passports, selfies, and Bitcoin transaction histories after a fraudulent government request bypassed its checks, though no funds were taken. Symbiosis recovered about 15 BTC after an attacker minted roughly 46.1 billion fake syBTC and realized only about $336,000. Separately, LDK v0.2.6 patched Lightning flaws that could divert small amounts during splicing, and BTCPay Server reported bots probing a password-change route that could expose administrator credentials.

The treasury thread turned negative. Two public companies completed exits: one reported zero Bitcoin after sales completed September 11, closing out the last 764 BTC of an earlier retreat, and a UK company sold its entire 669.4867 BTC reserve to return proceeds to shareholders, with settlement expected by September 28. TD Cowen went the other way, raising its price target on Smarter Web after a proposed preferred share IPO.

The week ahead

The calendar is the entire story. The Federal Reserve’s meeting begins tomorrow, September 15, and the Senate CLARITY Act vote sits beside it. The next consumer price report is 30 days out on October 14, so there is no inflation print between now and the decision. Inside Bitcoin, the halving cycle sits 60.03% complete at 877 days since the last one, short of any milestone.

The open questions follow the week’s shape. Whether a daily relative strength index of 56.90 with a histogram of -713.26 resolves into a base above $76,281.48 or a retest below it is the technical question, and a Monday hourly reading of 60.92 says buyers own the morning. Whether $462.7 million of outflow across four reporting days is a hedge into the Fed or the start of a redemption run is the flow question, and ARKB’s $234.2 million answers half of it by naming where the selling sat. And whether funding at 0.0004% through a 1.86% decline means room to lever up or no appetite to is what tomorrow begins to answer.

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onlyhashes.com publishes a weekly Bitcoin review every Monday morning. The data behind this post is generated by Bitcoin Sidekick’s OreRelay infrastructure: Bitcoin-only, no third-party trackers, no altcoins. Disclosures: this is editorial commentary on publicly available market data; nothing in this post is investment advice.