The week of July 6 through July 12, 2026.

The bottom line

Bitcoin ended the week almost exactly where it started, near $62,900, even as fighting between the US and Iran resumed and oil prices jumped. The calm was the story: the market absorbed a war scare and a $216 million Bitcoin sale by its largest corporate holder, and still finished slightly higher. Reports also said investors put money into Bitcoin ETFs for the first time in over two months. The next test is Wednesday’s US inflation report.

The headline

Bitcoin ended the week almost exactly where it began, closing the window at $62,904.91 against an open of $62,783.29, a 0.19% gain that hid a heavy news week. In between, the US-Iran ceasefire collapsed and strikes resumed, oil pushed past $74 a barrel, Strategy made a record sale of its own Bitcoin, and the spot ETF complex reportedly logged its first weekly inflow in over two months. The market absorbed all of it inside the same range it has held for months. As of Monday morning the tape was softer: Bitcoin slipped below $63,000 in an Asian-session leverage flush, with the returning Hormuz oil shock putting the $60,000 floor back into the conversation.

Price and macro backdrop

On a closing basis Bitcoin gained 0.19% for the week, from $62,783.29 to $62,904.91, with a low of $61,303.49 set on Monday, July 6 and a high of $64,626.87 reached Friday afternoon, a roughly 5% intra-week range around a $63,402.96 average. The shape of the week: an early test lower, a mid-week wobble as the ceasefire fell apart, a Friday push toward $64,600, and a fade back below $63,000 into Monday morning. Sentiment never left fear territory. The Fear and Greed index started the window at 27, bottomed at 20 on July 8, the day renewed strikes pushed oil to two-week highs, and finished at 28, the best reading of the week but still firmly cautious.

The cross-asset tape pulled in different directions. The S&P 500 rose 1.23% to 7,575.39 and closed the window at its weekly high, while gold fell 2.45% to $4,062.50 and the VIX ended about flat at 16.31 after spiking to 18.61 on July 8. Strategy (MSTR), the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, fell 6.08% to $94.64 and trades at about a 15.5% discount to the value of its Bitcoin holdings. Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation sat near 0.47 against both the S&P 500 and gold, loose readings on both counts, and the week showed why the tag fits: stocks rallied, gold sold off, and Bitcoin split the difference by going nowhere.

The macro plumbing stayed calm underneath the geopolitics. The dollar index held at 120.69, up 0.41% over seven days, a stable reading, while net liquidity in the financial system rose about $119 billion week over week to roughly $5.96 trillion. Real yields stayed positive, 2.31% on the 10-year and 1.99% on the 5-year, with the federal funds rate at 3.62% and headline inflation running 4.17% year over year. None of the credit gauges moved: the Chicago Fed’s financial conditions index sat loose at -0.515, the St. Louis stress index at -0.85, and high-yield spreads tight at 2.7%. Consumer sentiment stayed depressed at 44.8. As in prior weeks, the picture reads as cautious psychology on top of an intact structure, with the twist that liquidity improved while the headlines got worse.

Technical setup

The daily chart spent the week repairing. The 14-day relative strength index closed at 48.10, back to neutral from late June’s oversold readings, the daily MACD histogram was positive at 439.56, and price sat in the upper half of its volatility band with a %B of 0.64. Context tempers it: at a last daily close of $62,847.81, price was still 2.7% below its 50-day average and 14.8% below its 200-day, a recovery inside a downtrend rather than a new uptrend. Monday’s intraday tape was softer, the hourly RSI at 36.31 with price near the lower band at a %B of 0.25, consistent with the overnight flush.

ETF flows

The captured flow window, four reporting days, finished net negative by about $68 million, but the internals inverted the recent pattern. BlackRock’s IBIT flipped to a net taker at $82.5 million, including an $86.8 million inflow day on July 10. The selling rotated elsewhere: Fidelity’s FBTC shed $103.1 million with no positive day in the window, Grayscale’s GBTC lost $63.7 million, and ARKB lost $48.3 million, while Grayscale’s mini Bitcoin fund drew $52.8 million and VanEck’s HODL took in $9 million.

The news flow told a bigger story: reporting through the weekend said spot ETFs logged their first weekly inflow in over two months, $197 million, ending an eight-week streak that drained $8 billion. The two views do not fully agree, since the captured window is net negative while the weekly reporting is positive, and the discrepancy is worth naming rather than resolving: the digest window and the issuers’ reporting week do not share boundaries. Either way, the flow picture is no longer one-sided, and one Monday-morning headline framed the $64,000 rebound as outrunning even the improved ETF demand.

On-chain and mempool

The network firmed. Estimated hashrate rose 7.36% over the window to 915.24 exahashes per second, averaging 870.61 with a peak above 938, so miner commitment continued to run ahead of price. Blockspace demand stayed light but no longer empty: the count of pending transactions was essentially flat, down 1.47% to about 91,200, the backlog by virtual size shrank 6.65%, and the total fees waiting in the mempool rose 20.7%, with a brief spike in fee load on the evening of July 6. Nothing in the window resembled a congestion event.

Derivatives

Leverage stayed careful. Perpetual funding sat mildly negative at the latest read, about -0.0047% per interval, against a seven-day average of essentially zero; the digest classifies the funding regime as negative, with no flip flagged on the week. Shorts paying longs at the margin is a defensive lean, not a squeeze setup. Open interest across venues stood near $5.91 billion. On the regulated side, CFTC commitments showed open interest of 94,160 Bitcoin as of the July 7 report, about $6.04 billion notional.

Order book regime

Into Monday morning the book leaned to the bid. The imbalance read +0.19 against a 24-hour average of -0.04, bid-side depth within 2% of mid sat at 4.86 Bitcoin against a 3.38 baseline while ask-side depth at 3.30 sat below its 3.64 norm, and the spread held near 0.0016 basis points, well inside its 0.0096 average. The dominant resting wall sat on the bid side essentially at the mid-price. That is resting demand stepping up underneath a softening tape, not a directional promise.

News and policy threads

The defining corporate story was Strategy selling. The company sold 3,588 BTC, a record sale, raising $216 million for preferred dividends, and the move drew immediate scrutiny of its capital allocation. Michael Saylor followed with a cryptic chart and hints of another move, Standard Chartered said the pivot message needs clarity to convince investors, and the strain spread across the treasury cohort: Adam Back’s 30,021 BTC treasury deal lost the funding structure holding it together, and American Bitcoin forced a 1:15 reverse split to avoid a Nasdaq delisting. The corporate treasury bid that defined earlier phases of the cycle is, for now, a source of supply.

Geopolitics set the rhythm. The ceasefire collapsed mid-week, oil pushed past $74 a barrel, and Bitcoin slid toward the $60,000 to $62,000 area on July 8 and 9 before stabilizing, with a $240 million government wallet transfer to Coinbase adding to the pressure narrative. By the weekend the market had stopped flinching: through a fourth round of US strikes, Bitcoin held near $64,000 while gold, oil, stocks, and bonds swung, and one Monday-morning report described a war-driven selloff hitting everything but crypto. The Fear and Greed low of 20 and the VIX spike to 18.61 both stamp July 8 as the week’s stress point.

The protocol fight over BIP-110, a proposal to cap Ordinals-style data for a year, escalated through the back half of the week, with miner support reportedly at zero as its deadline nears and both Saylor and Adam Back warning that the cap risks a bigger fight than the spam it targets. Underneath, the range story hardened: the news flow counted Bitcoin’s consolidation at 307 days, the third-longest such stretch on record, while long-term holder capitulation tracked by Glassnode ran at $280 million a day, the kind of reading bottom-callers cite and the bull-trap camp discounts. July 14 was repeatedly flagged as the next resistance test.

The week ahead

The next catalyst is two days out. The June consumer price report lands on July 15, with headline inflation last running 4.17% year over year and the 10-year breakeven at 2.24%; after a week in which oil re-entered the inflation conversation, the print carries more weight than usual. The Federal Reserve’s next decision follows on July 28, 15 days away. Nearer in, the news flow’s July 14 resistance test and the BIP-110 deadline both sit inside the week. The market enters it the way it exited the last one: inside a 307-day range, fearful but no longer falling, with a flow picture that is contested for the first time in months.

FOMC and CPI release dates are built into Bitcoin Sidekick’s calendar, so you know exactly how many days until the next move-maker. Macro context, on-device, no subscription.

onlyhashes.com publishes a weekly Bitcoin review every Monday morning. The data behind this post is generated by Bitcoin Sidekick’s OreRelay infrastructure: Bitcoin-only, no third-party trackers, no altcoins. Disclosures: this is editorial commentary on publicly available market data; nothing in this post is investment advice.